Playoff Prognosis

As a baseball junkie the passing from September to October brings much enjoyment as fall baseball begins. The playoffs start today and so I thought it would be fun to analyze the match-ups. Maybe some friendly banter will result from my provocative and expert commentary. Your comments welcome.


Let’s start in the National League (my preferred format). As much as I’d like to see the Dodgers do something (it’s been so long), I think they are overmatched. I’ll take the Cubs in that divisional series. The Dodgers don’t have shut down pitching. The other divisional series between the Phillies and Brewers I think will be the most interesting, although the networks believe this series will have the fewest viewers. I’ll take the Phillies for one reason only. Since the first round is a five game series, pitching match-ups are especially important. Truly, I believe the Brewers have the best 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation; definitely in the NL and maybe in all of MLB. I don’t like the way their rotation is scheduled, which couldn’t be helped because of the tight wild card race. Only because the Phillies have their ace Cole Hamels going in game one and the Brewers have to shift Sabathia and Sheets to games two and three do I think the Phillies have a slight advantage. This series will come down to game four with a possible pitching match-up of Jamie Moyer (Phillies) and Manny Para (Brewers). If this was a 7 game series I’d take Milwaukee because they could use either Sabathia or Sheets twice. The Brewers are a good story and personally I’ll be rooting for them.


So that brings us to the proposed NLCS between the Phillies and Cubs. There are two ways this could go; either the 100 year drought ends with the Cubs advancing to and winning the World Series or it continues with a manifestation of the “goat.” In this series I’ll go along with the build up of rain clouds pouring down victory. The NLCS should be a six or seven game series with the Cubs advancing.


The American League also provides some interesting match-ups. Looking at the Rays and White Sox first it seems apparent that the best team, the Rays (assumption based on the fact they won the AL East division which traditionally is the high powered, big money division) facing a team, the White Sox, with momentum; having won a tie-breaker to win the AL Central. I’ll take the Rays because they have younger talent and a seemingly more balanced team. The divisional series between the Angels and Red Sox will be the prime time series. I believe the winner of this series will be the World Series champion. This series will come down to the health of Josh Beckett. If he is healthy enough to pitch at close to full strength it’s over. If not, then the Angels win; needing the full five games.


The ALCS should see the incumbent champion Red Sox versus the feel good story of the year, Tampa Rays. Half the baseball population will be rooting for the Red Sox and the other half will be rooting for the Rays as the underdog. I’ll be rooting for the Rays but I don’t think they will be able to match the intensity pitch by pitch the Sox are accustomed to this time of year. In fact, I think the ALCS will be a short four to five game series.


If all plays out this way (what makes you doubt it wouldn’t) the World Series will come down to the Cubs and Red Sox. This is where the “goat” makes his appearance. Who knows how or when, but I predict that the curse will continue and the Cubs will have to wait at least 101 years for victory.